OpenAI's $852B Valuation Masks a Circular Financing Trap

OpenAI's $122B raise props up a circular financing structure where Amazon and NVIDIA—suppliers with $80B combined commitments—profit regardless of OpenAI's margin trajectory. Meanwhile, Anthropic quietly achieved $30B ARR, outpacing OpenAI's $25B while maintaining healthier unit economics. The IPO clock in Q4 2026 forces disclosure of a stark reality: $14B annual losses, inference costs growing 68% YoY, and gross margins compressing toward 33% in a $0.13/M-token commodity market.